Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.007416 0.008361 0.009394 0.010611 0.012009 0.013568 0.015441
2024-10-13 0.006169 0.007509 0.009106 0.011163 0.013758 0.016943 0.021184
2024-10-20 0.005116 0.006536 0.008325 0.010765 0.014040 0.018330 0.024452
2024-10-27 0.004420 0.005868 0.007775 0.010502 0.014352 0.019674 0.027726
2024-11-03 0.003989 0.005477 0.007512 0.010544 0.015023 0.021521 0.031890
2024-11-10 0.003763 0.005327 0.007545 0.010978 0.016271 0.024311 0.037818
2024-11-17 0.003408 0.004951 0.007203 0.010805 0.016564 0.025664 0.041646
2024-11-24 0.003161 0.004704 0.007021 0.010841 0.017164 0.027541 0.046577
2024-12-01 0.002890 0.004392 0.006703 0.010620 0.017305 0.028658 0.050315
2024-12-08 0.002750 0.004271 0.006669 0.010848 0.018211 0.031169 0.056926
2024-12-15 0.002578 0.004080 0.006503 0.010832 0.018684 0.032953 0.062414
2024-12-22 0.002338 0.003759 0.006094 0.010354 0.018269 0.033050 0.064560
2024-12-29 0.002185 0.003576 0.005911 0.010276 0.018612 0.034681 0.070253
2025-01-05 0.002144 0.003583 0.006057 0.010810 0.020188 0.038946 0.082357
2025-01-12 0.001966 0.003335 0.005729 0.010426 0.019915 0.039423 0.086097
2025-01-19 0.001825 0.003141 0.005484 0.010172 0.019872 0.040370 0.091082
2025-01-26 0.001737 0.003037 0.005394 0.010212 0.020439 0.042699 0.099815
2025-02-02 0.001705 0.003032 0.005489 0.010631 0.021858 0.047118 0.114652
2025-02-09 0.001604 0.002890 0.005308 0.010465 0.021974 0.048555 0.121978
2025-02-16 0.001534 0.002803 0.005227 0.010499 0.022543 0.051140 0.132937
2025-02-23 0.001443 0.002667 0.005040 0.010286 0.022513 0.052251 0.139933
2025-03-02 0.001404 0.002631 0.005051 0.010505 0.023530 0.056131 0.155866
2025-03-09 0.001344 0.002549 0.004960 0.010490 0.023976 0.058602 0.168062